Mortgage rates today on September 16, 2025, including both mortgage and refinance rates, have dropped notably, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.37%—down 8 basis points from the previous week’s 6.45%. Refinance rates are dipping more modestly, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate at 6.64%. This decline happens just as the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates commences, with strong market expectations for a rate cut. These easing rates could provide relief for homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance, though rates are likely to remain above 6% for the foreseeable future.
Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 16, 2025: 30-Year FRM Drops by 8 Basis Points
Key Takeaways
30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 6.37%, down 8 basis points from last week.
15-year fixed mortgage rates also dropped slightly to 5.54%.
30-year fixed refinance rates decreased slightly to 6.64%, with mixed movements in shorter-term refinance products.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting.
Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, slowing job growth and influencing lower mortgage rates.
Economists predict mortgage rates will remain above 6% through 2025, with gradual easing expected in 2026.
Mortgage applications for refinancing reached nearly 47% of the market, the highest since October.
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped, pushing mortgage rates lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
Current Mortgage Rates Overview: September 16, 2025
According to Zillow’s latest data, mortgage rates have shown a marked decrease this week as investors and the market anticipate Federal Reserve action. Here is a snapshot of the national average mortgage and refinance rates by loan type (Zillow, 2025):
Loan Type
Current Rate
1-Week Change
APR
1-Week APR Change
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
6.37%
-0.08%
6.95%
+0.05%
15-Year Fixed Mortgage
5.54%
-0.02%
5.94%
+0.13%
5-Year ARM Mortgage
7.31%
0.00%
8.04%
+0.35%
Loan Type
Current Refinance Rate
1-Week Change
APR
1-Week APR Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance
6.64%
-0.01%
–
–
15-Year Fixed Refinance
5.45%
+0.05%
–
–
5-Year ARM Refinance
7.69%
+0.25%
–
–
Why Are Mortgage Rates Falling Now?
Several factors are pushing mortgage rates down:
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Expected: The Fed’s upcoming meeting is highly anticipated, with a 91% chance the Fed will reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter-point. Mortgage rates often fall ahead of formal announcements as lenders adjust pricing.
Cooling Labor Market: The August 2025 jobs report showed just 22,000 jobs added and unemployment rose slightly to 4.3%, signaling a slowing economy. Softening job growth reduces inflation pressures, which usually leads to lower borrowing costs.
Declining Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates typically track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. This yield fell to 4.070%, its lowest since October 2024, as investors expect the Fed to ease further.
Detailed Mortgage Rate Trends by Loan Type
Conforming Loans
Program
Rate
Change (1W)
APR
APR Change (1W)
30-Year Fixed
6.37%
Down 0.08%
6.95%
Up 0.05%
20-Year Fixed
6.23%
Up 0.02%
6.71%
Up 0.13%
15-Year Fixed
5.54%
Up 0.03%
5.94%
Up 0.13%
10-Year Fixed
5.79%
No change
6.09%
No change
7-Year ARM
6.38%
No change
7.43%
No change
5-Year ARM
7.31%
Up 0.32%
8.04%
Up 0.35%
Government Loans
Program
Rate
Change (1W)
APR
APR Change (1W)
30-Year Fixed FHA
5.66%
No change
6.66%
No change
30-Year Fixed VA
5.60%
Down 0.30%
5.70%
Down 0.40%
15-Year Fixed FHA
5.21%
Down 0.02%
6.17%
Down 0.02%
15-Year Fixed VA
5.52%
Down 0.04%
5.74%
Down 0.16%
Data source: Zillow (9/16/2025)
Refinance Rates: Small Dip in 30-Year Fixed Refinance
The refinance market is seeing slight easing in 30-year fixed refinance rates, which dropped to 6.64% from 6.65% a week ago. However, shorter-term refinance options like the 5-year ARM refinance rose to 7.69% from 7.44%. This reflects how refinancing opportunities may be more limited for certain loan types but better for others.
Example: Refinance Savings Calculation
Consider a homeowner with an existing 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.2%, looking to refinance $300,000 today at the new 6.64% rate.
Old monthly payment (principal & interest):
$$ P = frac{r times L}{1 – (1 + r)^{-n}} = frac{0.072/12 times 300,000}{1 – (1+0.072/12)^{-360}} approx 2012.45 $$
New monthly payment at 6.64%:
$$ P = frac{0.0664/12 times 300,000}{1 – (1+0.0664/12)^{-360}} approx 1926.88 $$
Monthly savings: $2012.45 – $1926.88 = $85.57
Annual savings: $85.57 x 12 = $1026.84
This monthly reduction can help homeowners redirect funds or accelerate mortgage payoff (Zillow, 2025).
Economic Context Affecting Mortgage Rates
Labor Market Softening and Inflation
August 2025 unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2% in July.
Job creation slowed drastically with only 22,000 new jobs added — a substantial drop compared to previous months.
Inflation remains somewhat persistent at 2.7% Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), but trends show it cooling.
These factors create pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, which influences mortgage rates downward (Zillow, 2025).
Federal Reserve’s Influence on Mortgage Rates
Since its pandemic-era support measures, the Fed has transitioned through aggressive rate hikes to cooling down and signals a pivot to cuts:
From 2021-early 2023, the Fed raised rates to contain inflation, pushing mortgage rates to 20-year highs.
In late 2024, the Fed cut rates three times, totaling a 1% reduction.
In 2025, the Fed paused rate changes for five meetings, but July showed dissent among governors in favor of cuts.
The market expects the Fed to cut rates at the September 16-17 meeting and possibly twice more before year’s end.
This environment is the key driver behind recent declines in mortgage and refinance rates.
Related Topics:
Mortgage Rates Trends as of September 15, 2025
Mortgage Rates Predictions Next 90 Days: August to October 2025
Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 60 Days
Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 90 Days: July-Sept 2025
Mortgage Market Forecast for Late 2025 and Beyond
The future path of mortgage rates remains cautious:
Realtor.com projects rates easing to 6.4% by end of 2025, matching prior year averages despite some dips.
Fannie Mae forecasts rates ending 2025 at 6.5%, dropping further to 6.1% in 2026, as mortgage originations rise.
Mortgage Bankers Association expects 6.7% for the 30-year mortgage by year-end, declining to 6.5% in 2026 amidst rate volatility.
Although rates are down from their peaks, they remain significantly higher than the record lows during the pandemic period (Zillow, NAR, Fannie Mae, MBA, 2025).
What This Means for Home Buyers and Refinancers
While the recent drop in mortgage and refinance rates offers some relief, rates above 6% still pose affordability challenges for many buyers. The highest share of refinance applications in over 10 months reflects homeowners’ efforts to take advantage of these lower rates.
The key caution is that mortgage decisions shouldn’t hinge solely on chasing the lowest possible rate, as market timing remains unpredictable.
Summary Table: Mortgage and Refinance Rates – September 16, 2025
Loan Type
Current Rate
Change (1 Week)
Expected Trend
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
6.37%
Down 0.08%
Downward or stable
15-Year Fixed Mortgage
5.54%
Down 0.02%
Stable to slight decrease
30-Year Fixed Refinance
6.64%
Down 0.01%
Slight decrease expected
5-Year ARM Mortgage
7.31%
Up 0.32%
Mixed fluctuations
Unemployment Rate (Aug 2025)
4.3%
Up 0.1%
Could pressure rates down
Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
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Also Read:
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15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years: 2025-2029
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